Every unit we hold gets priced against the same benchmark: what would the equivalent car cost as a Japanese export? We do it because dealers ask, and because we would rather know before a customer tells us.
The answer is not “China is cheaper.” It depends on the car, and the pattern is consistent enough to be useful.
Where China wins, and by a lot
The biggest gaps are on models Japan barely sold.
Ford F-150 Raptor 2018. Our EXW is $42,715. The Japanese export benchmark across two dozen comparable units sits above $100,000. Ford pulled out of Japan in 2016, so the domestic pool there is thin and priced like a curiosity. China has a real market for American pickups, which means real depreciation.
Isuzu mu-X 2018. Ours at $17,587 against a Japanese benchmark above $33,000 — roughly half. Same reason: the mu-X was never a Japanese domestic volume model, so Japanese supply is scarce and priced accordingly.
The rule underneath both: where Japan has no domestic used pool, Japanese export prices are set by scarcity, and China wins outright.
Where China wins on age
Older Prados are the clearest case in the mainstream segment.
- 2015 Prado 2.7: ours $19,642, Japanese benchmark around $18,700 — near parity, and our cheapest clean units go lower
- 2018 Prado TX-L: ours $25,705 against roughly $22,800 — Japan slightly ahead
- 2022 Prado: ours $59,724 against roughly $28,000 — Japan wins by more than double
The Prado is scarce and expensive in the Chinese domestic market, and gets more so the newer it is. If you want a late-model Prado, buy it from Japan. We will tell you that rather than sell you one.
Where it is a coin toss
On mainstream Japanese models of recent vintage, the two sources land within about ten percent of each other:
- Nissan X-Trail 2019 — ours $8,358 vs roughly $8,200
- Subaru Forester 2021 — ours $13,916 vs roughly $13,300
- Toyota Corolla Cross 2023 — ours $11,895 vs roughly $10,900
- BMW X5 2025 — ours $77,913 vs roughly $76,400
At that margin the price is not the deciding factor. What decides it is condition transparency, how fast the unit ships, and whether the seller will tell you about the repair history before you pay. Ten percent is inside the range a single bad surprise will erase.
How to use this
Three practical rules fall out of it:
- Non-Japanese badges — buy from China. American pickups, Isuzu, Chinese domestic brands, European models built in China. Japan’s pool is thin and the export price reflects that.
- Late-model Japanese icons — buy from Japan. Recent Prado, Land Cruiser, Hiace. China prices them as scarce imports; Japan prices them as ordinary domestic stock.
- Mainstream sedans and crossovers — decide on trust, not price. The gap is too small to matter. Ask both suppliers for the inspection report before you commit and see who actually sends one.
Why we publish the cases where we lose
Because you will find out anyway, usually in the middle of a negotiation, and the discovery costs more than this article does. A dealer who asks us for a 2022 Prado and gets told “buy that one from Japan” is a dealer who believes us the next time we say a unit is good.
We are a China-based exporter. We sweep the live Chinese wholesale market for whatever spec you name, send photos, mileage records and an independent inspection report before you commit, and quote one CIF number to your port with China-side handling and freight fixed at booking. Duty and clearing stay with your agent.
Tell us the segment and the price band that works on your lot. We will send three matching units — or tell you the segment is one where China is not the right source.